Disney is about to test whether a story nobody has seen can still win Thanksgiving. Boxoffice Pro’s long-range forecast, released Friday, Oct. 30, has “Hexed” opening to $35 million to $45 million over three days and $50 million to $70 million across the five-day holiday stretch. The film opens Wednesday, Nov. 25.
A $75 million figure has been bouncing around online. The published forecast doesn’t say that. Even so, the real range would be the studio’s best original opening since “Moana” in 2016, which took in more than $56 million over its first three days.
The numbers it has to beat
The floor is already respectable. The low end of the five-day range clears the Thanksgiving openings of “Encanto” at $40.5 million, “Wish” at $31.6 million and “Strange World” at $18.8 million. Boxoffice Pro also has “Hexed” ahead of Disney’s last three original animated Thanksgiving releases, and leading the holiday weekend.
The ceiling is a different matter. “Moana 2” pulled $225.4 million over five days and “Zootopia 2” $158.8 million, and both opened above $100 million for three days. They arrived with fans of every age attached. “Hexed” has no such head start.
Why originals are a slow burn
The calculus for an original is different, and Disney knows it. “Encanto” opened modestly, kept selling tickets for weeks and finished with $96 million in the U.S. If “Hexed” gets good word of mouth over the holiday break, the same pattern could carry it into December.
Tracking is a snapshot, and online reaction is split. Some fans read the numbers as proof that audiences will show up for something that isn’t a franchise. Others wonder how it tracks this well when the buzz has been quiet.
The film is the studio’s 65th animated feature. Hailee Steinfeld voices Billie Doe, a teenager who learns her odd traits may point to magic, and Rashida Jones plays her cautious mother, Alice. Together they head into a witch realm called Hexe to dig into family secrets. Jodie Foster, in her first Disney animated film, and Walton Goggins joined the cast at D23. Fawn Veerasunthorn and Jason Hand direct, and a new short, “Lilo & Scratch,” plays ahead of the feature.
The rest of the Thanksgiving frame looks quiet, with “Focker In-Law” the other film expected near the top.
Sources
- Disney's 'Hexed' Box Office Tracking Points to the Biggest Original Animated Debut Since 'Moana'
- "Hexed" Looks to be Casting a Spell on the Box Office Already
- Disney’s Hexed could open to $70M over Thanksgiving 5-day weekend
Photo: MandiRodriguez7 (CC BY-SA 4.0)
