STRASBOURG, September 16 — Ursula von der Leyen stood before the European Parliament on Wednesday and, with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney watching from the chamber, called for Canada and the European Union to move past their existing free trade agreement and build what she called an “Alliance for the Future.” Addressing Carney directly, the European Commission president said she wanted to work with him on “opening the door for Canada to be the first associate member of the EU.” The proposal, delivered in her annual State of the European Union address, drew an immediate and expansive response from European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, who suggested Australia and New Zealand could eventually follow.
U.S. President Donald Trump wasted no time. He called the proposal “laughable,” dismissed Canada as a “terrible trade partner,” and warned that if he judged the new arrangement to be a “hostile act,” he would impose severe new tariffs on Europe or even halt trade in some areas.
The same day, Trump signed a presidential memorandum directing officials in his administration to identify Canadian goods to be excluded from the $280 billion U.S. federal civilian procurement market. Carney seemed undeterred. He addressed the European Parliament on Thursday morning, welcoming von der Leyen’s offer and noting that polling showed an overwhelming majority of Canadians supported much closer ties with Europe.
Asked afterward about Trump’s threats, Carney told reporters that a stronger and more sovereign Canada would be a more effective partner for the United States.
Not everyone in Brussels is pleased
Trump was not the only one left upset by the development. Several EU governments were reportedly furious that they had not been consulted beforehand, and even Germany, which in general supports closer relations with Ottawa, publicly suggested reconsidering the term “associate member.” The honest answer is that nobody quite knows yet, including those in the Brussels bubble.
The EU treaties do not have an “associate member” category, and Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union only allows a “European State” to apply for membership — though it does not define what that actually means. Canada is also not asking to join the EU.
In his speech to the European Parliament in Strasbourg, Carney stressed that Canada is neither seeking nor in a position to become a full member, and that the substance of the future relationship matters more than its label.
What the substance would build on
That substance would presumably build on what already exists. CETA has been provisionally applied since 2017, even though ten EU member states have still not ratified it. Canada has been associated with Horizon Europe, the EU’s flagship research program, since 2024.
At their June 2025 summit in Brussels, Canada and the EU signed a Security and Defense Partnership and also launched a new Strategic Partnership of the Future. And this past February, on the margins of the Munich Security Conference, Canada became the first non-European country to join Security Action for Europe, or SAFE, the EU’s €150 billion (about US$163 billion) joint defense procurement instrument.
Carney’s own wish list on Thursday was nevertheless ambitious. It included deep cooperation across the full range of strategic capabilities, including critical minerals and their processing, defense industrial capacity, artificial intelligence and computing power, energy security, space exploration, and payment systems. To that list he added seamless digital trade in nonagricultural goods and a wide range of services, including an integrated market for financial services.
He also hoped for far greater freedom for young Canadians and Europeans to live, work, and study on either side of the Atlantic, including Canadian membership in the next generation of Horizon and Erasmus+, the EU’s well-known student exchange program. Metsola, for her part, has pointed to common regulation on issues that like-minded democratic countries care about, including social media and the protection of minors.
In other words, Canada would participate in large parts of the EU’s economic, technological, and educational ecosystem while staying out of its political institutions. So don’t expect a Canadian commissioner, Canadian members of the European Parliament, or a seat at the European Council table.
The short answer is Trump
Roughly 70 percent of Canada’s exports still go to the United States, down from more than three-quarters before the U.S.-Canada trade war. This degree of economic integration has underpinned Canadian prosperity for decades, but it is now increasingly seen as a vulnerability. Carney’s strategy is to diversify his country’s trade.
He wants to create enough alternative markets, suppliers, and political partnerships so that no single country, including the United States, can coerce or bully Canada through its trade dependence. Europe has arrived at a similar conclusion for many of the same reasons, given its own reliance on the United States for its security and technology, on China for its critical minerals, and on Russia for its energy.
Matthias Matthijs, an expert on European political economy, the politics of economic ideas, transatlantic relations, and EU integration, holds the Dean Acheson Chair at Johns Hopkins University’s
