NEW YORK, September 22 — The International Energy Agency published a special report on Tuesday finding that electricity could cost-effectively meet 33% of the world’s final energy consumption by 2035, up from 23% today, using technologies available now and energy prices at levels seen before the onset of the current supply shock. The report was prepared at the request of Türkiye, the COP31 President, and Australia, the COP31 President of Negotiations.
It will serve as the basis for discussions at the IEA-COP31 High-Level Energy Transition Dialogue taking place that day in New York in the context of the United Nations General Assembly, where countries are considering the adoption of a global electrification target of 35%.
Striking distance
The IEA states that the 33% projection would put the 35% goal under discussion within striking distance. Energy prices at their current levels, amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis, would make even more of the world’s energy consumption cost effective to electrify, the agency adds. Global electricity use has grown faster than economic output and nearly twice as fast as overall energy demand in recent years, according to the IEA.
The report attributes that growth to rapid expansion of air conditioning, data centres, advanced manufacturing and electric cars.
The import bill
In a scenario in which fuel-importing countries speed up electrification considerably, their energy import bills could fall by more than $400 billion by 2035 compared with 2025 levels. By then, faster electrification could mean the world is using 18 million fewer barrels of oil per day than it would have done otherwise, mainly the result of a rapid uptake of electric vehicles in this scenario.
Electrification also offers a major opportunity to tackle emissions associated with energy use in transport, buildings and industry, which together account for more than half of all energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, the report says. The report assesses the implications of faster electrification for energy security and climate goals, as well as the broader benefits and trade-offs.
It examines the potential to accelerate electrification globally and the extent to which progress could be sped up by sector and region. The IEA frames the shift as the world entering the Age of Electricity, saying it can bring major benefits for economic competitiveness, energy security and energy transitions. Ensuring electricity remains secure and affordable will become increasingly important as its use expands, the agency notes.
What to watch next is whether governments gathered at the United Nations General Assembly adopt the 35% global electrification target, and how the IEA-COP31 dialogue carries the report’s findings into the COP31 negotiations.
